Looking Towards 2025 | The Risk Matrix Episode 76
THE RISK MATRIX Cutting-edge podcast on occupational safety and risk management. Hosted by industry titans: JAMES JUNKIN, MS, CSP, MSP,…
The risk matrix is widely used in various industries for assessing and prioritizing risks based on their severity and the probability of occurrence. These tools help organizations manage their risks more efficiently by focusing on the most likely and most harmful risks.
However, one of the critical shortcomings of risk matrices is their tendency to underrepresent or discount high-severity, low-probability (HSLP) events, despite the potential catastrophic impacts these events can have.
A recent catastrophe here in the U.S. – namely the impact and collapse of the Frances Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland – can be used to illustrate this point and how we can seek to use some methods to improve our preparation and planning. I’m convinced that we can improve risk assessment practices to a balanced approach. One that also addresses less catastrophic but more probable risks CAN be successful.
A risk matrix typically categorizes risks into a grid format, where one axis represents the probability of occurrence and the other axis the severity of impact. This method is intuitive and provides a clear visual representation of risk.
However, its simplicity can also be a drawback. High-severity, low-probability events often fall into a category that receives less attention because the sheer improbability of occurrence makes them seem less urgent compared to more frequent, moderate risks. This approach can lead to a dangerous oversight where risks capable of causing significant damage are not sufficiently prepared for or mitigated.
Historical examples like the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the COVID-19 pandemic illustrate the devastating consequences of underestimating HSLP risks. Such events, although rare, highlight the critical need for a risk management strategy that does not merely focus on the “lower hanging fruit” — risks that are more probable but less severe.
To address the limitations of traditional risk matrices, several strategies can be implemented, including the following:
Using these suggestions, I’ve given above, here is how the City of Baltimore could have planned for this HSLP risk of the bridge strike and collapse not as an “IF” scenario, but instead – a “WHEN” scenario.
A multifaceted approach involving long-term planning, budgeting, and strategic investment in infrastructure is crucial. Here’s an illustrative example of how Baltimore could prepare for such an event:
While risk matrices are useful for simplifying the complex nature of organizational risks, they inherently discount high-severity, low-probability events due to their format and typical usage.
By recognizing the limitations of traditional risk matrices and adopting more comprehensive risk assessment and management practices, organizations can better prepare for both the probable “lower hanging fruit” and the less likely but potentially more damaging HSLP events.
Integrating these strategies will lead to a more resilient organization capable of responding to a wide range of adverse situations, thereby safeguarding its assets, reputation, and stakeholders more effectively.
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James A. Junkin, MS, CSP, MSP, SMS, ASP, CSHO is the chief executive officer of Mariner-Gulf Consulting & Services, LLC and the chair of the Veriforce Strategic Advisory Board and the chair of Professional Safety journal’s editorial review board. He is Columbia Southern University’s 2022 Safety Professional of the Year (Runner Up), a 2023 recipient of the National Association of Environmental Management’s (NAEM) 30 over 30 Award for excellence in the practice of occupational safety and health and sustainability, and the American Society of Safety Professionals (ASSP) 2024 Safety Professional of the Year for Training and Communication. He is much sought after master trainer, keynote speaker, podcaster of The Risk Matrix, and author of numerous articles concerning occupational safety and health.
THE RISK MATRIX Cutting-edge podcast on occupational safety and risk management. Hosted by industry titans: JAMES JUNKIN, MS, CSP, MSP,…
THE RISK MATRIX Cutting-edge podcast on occupational safety and risk management. Hosted by industry titans: JAMES JUNKIN, MS, CSP, MSP,…
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